Let’s take a closer look, shall we?
A new study offered up by Pike Research says that New York and California will be the largest electric vehicle (EV) markets through 2017. So who is Pike Research and how would they be in a position to know such things?
Researching Pike Research, it seems that they came into being in 2009. One wouldn’t learn this by looking on their “About” page, as the only information found there tells of their mission to provide “in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets”. There is also a button link to their staff. Their history seems to begin with blog posts in April of 2009 and research reports dating to that same time frame. So they’ve been around for a couple years and sell research reports. As we can’t afford the $3,800 cost of the report, we’ll have to make do with the free executive summary (login required). There is some additional information on their “Newsroom” page.
It seems that New York and California will be the area’s of largest market growth for EVs. While New York will have sold 116,718 EVs by 2017, Los Angeles will have sold 96,175. Seriously? New York will sell more EVs than LA? Of course, when you consider the rest of the state, the California numbers about double those of New York. Still… we find that difficult to buy. Considering that the LEAF is not available in New York, and won’t be (in any quantity) for some time, early New York sales will need to come from other manufacturers. But there are no large manufacturers with electric vehicles to sell yet – in New York or anywhere else. (We are leaning toward referring to the Volt as the first of the plug-in hybrids, rather than GM’s preferred “extended range electric vehicle”). But even were we to call the Volt an electric car, we find it hard to believe that New York will buy more of them than Los Angeles.
And then it dawned on us… they will be used as cabs! Because nobody drives in New York.
Four hours in the morning – perhaps 80 miles. Lunch and quick charge at dispatch. 80 miles in the afternoon. Level 2 charge overnight. 160 miles per day. Six days a week (even cab drivers need a day off). Over 50 weeks that would amount to 48,000 miles in a year. We suppose it’s possible. Then again, we’ve always been a little skeptical of anyone that claims to forecast anything more than five years out with the precision of individual numbers (116,718?). Perhaps if they were just a little bit more “broad stroke”, we might be just a little bit more willing to believe them.