Survey also shows conflict between current need and desired range
A recent survey taken by the consulting firm Deloitte surveyed 13,000 consumers in 17 countries about their intention to purchase an electric vehicle (EV). One result that we found interesting was that Japan, one of the smallest countries (geographically) in the survey, was the only one where a majority (52 percent) would be not likely to consider the purchase of an EV. Let’s take a look at some of the other results. (The entire survey can be read in the above link.)
We have seen a variant of the following statistic often enough to believe it to be reliable – 80 percent of drivers surveyed traveled less than 50 miles per day. That said, desired EV range was closer to consumers current internal combustion engine vehicles – 300 miles. While most drivers could easily get by with current EV range capability, it is the desire to go further if they need to that drives the additional range requirement. We relate this to the vast majority of Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) owners in the United States that have the capability of going off-road in their low fuel economy, ride like a truck behemoths, but actually never do. When queried about the possibility of replacing their truck-based SUV with a car-based higher mileage minivan for carrying their families about, many SUV owners offer a look that says “What? Me… drive a minivan? Are you daft?” In other words, want often overrules need in the acquisition of a vehicle.
Charge time is also a concern with the majority of consumers desiring a recharge time of two hours or less. For us, this just underscores the need for educating the potential owner. The EV charges while you sleep or while you work (or preferentially, both) thereby providing you with almost twice the published range capability. Of course, this assumes that you work for about eight hours, and have the ability to charge on a 240 volt circuit while at work. But even if you only have the ability to charge with 120 volts while at work, eight hours will provide an additional 40 mile or so range. We think that for most, this will be adequate range extension should any at all be needed. There really aren’t (hopefully) many individuals that have a commute of more than 60 miles each way.
One of the factors that changed potential EV adoption was the price of gasoline. At the time of the survey (November 2010 through May 2011), gasoline prices in the United States averaged $3.67 per gallon. If US gasoline prices rise to $5.00 per gallon, consumer interest in EVs would increase to 75 percent from 54 percent at current gasoline prices.
Finally, fuel efficiency of gasoline engined vehicles played a major factor in the responses provided. If fuel efficiency reaches 50 miles per gallon, the federally mandated Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) by 2025, 68 percent of respondents became much less likely to want an EV. For some reason, the survey builders thought it necessary to include a question regarding the desirability of EVs when gasoline powered vehicles achieve 75 miles per gallon. If gasoline powered vehicles have improved only slightly in the past 100 years, we find it highly unlikely that they will achieve 75 miles per gallon anytime soon. Naturally, if 75 miles per gallon is reached, EV desirability drops like a rock.
Tomorrow we will look at the evolution of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) to evaluate just that possibility.
Source: Deloitte
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”
― Henry Ford
Point is market research is of little value for revolutionary products like the EV. Market research is best used for evolutionary products to improve them over time. Once consumers have formed a strong mental model as to how it ought to be, they can’t see any alternative. They believe cars should go 300 miles before refueling because their mental model is based on their present ICE vehicle. However, over time as the market for EVs grows, these old mental models are tossed out. It will take decades for this process to be complete.
I would also point out that hybrid and EV technologies are enabling ICE vehicles to achieve extraordinary MPG numbers. These ICE vehicles now use electric power steering, low drag designs, low rolling resistance tires, and lighter weight. Some are also using start-stop technology. So as innovation occurs in EVs it finds its way into ICE vehicles which in turn results in slowing the adoption of EVs. This again is why it will take decade for the EV to reach mass adoption.
If in real estate the mantra is “location, location, location”, in the EV world it is “education, education, education.” Consumers can only change their mind when they see for themselves the advantages afforded with an EV.
I agree that hybrid technology will be hugely important over the next decade as manufacturers move many of their platforms to include hybrid offerings. Improvements in EV technology will make their way into these ever improving hybrids. In the end, if all of these technologies combined reduce petroleum usage, then we are moving in the right direction.
Nine thousand miles and counting on my LEAF. I have tossed out my mental model a while ago…although a few more miles range would be nice! 😉