How far will my future LEAF take me?
According to Nissan, one can expect to get 100 miles per charge out of the Nissan LEAF. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, one can expect to get 73 miles per charge out of the Nissan LEAF. But according to someone who actually drove it that far, one can expect to get 116.1 miles without draining the battery totally. And way back in July we published an article that showed conditions where the mileage might range from a low of 47 miles to a high of 138 miles. We have said it before, and we will say it again – your mileage will vary. Just as with your current vehicle, it depends on how you drive, and where. But this article is about the future range of electric vehicles (EVs). Let’s take a look at an article that popped up on a UK web site this past week.
Dr. Steve Chu, Nobel prize-winning physicist and US Energy Secretary, speaking at the United Nations climate change conference in Mexico recently about EV range:
“I know from our research departments that it will go fast from 100 miles to 150 to 200 within a couple of years.” When asked whether 400-500 miles was a possibility within the next five years, he replied “yes”.
Certainly not everyone agrees with Dr. Chu, including us. 500 miles possible – yes. Likely – we don’t think so. But then again, we are not Nobel prize-winning physicists. There is absolutely no doubt that the technology will improve, and costs will come down as this technology develops into large scale manufacturing capabilities. In other words, in three years it is highly likely that the LEAF will have a higher capacity battery available that will provide perhaps significantly more range than a 2011 LEAF. Right around the time your LEAF lease will be due to end.
There is one other significant factor that few (that we have seen) have taken into consideration. The Federal Tax Credits for Electric Vehicles purchased in or after 2010. By now it is well known that the Federal Government will kick in up to $7,500 of tax credits toward your purchase or lease of the Nissan LEAF. So as to get this information correct, we will quote directly from the U.S. Department of Energy’s web site:
The credit begins to phase out for vehicles at the beginning of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer produces 200,000 eligible plug-in electric vehicles (i.e., plug-in hybrids and EVs) as counted from January 1, 2010. IRS will announce when a manufacturer exceeds this production figure and will announce the subsequent phase out schedule.
More information about the phase out schedule can be found on the DOE web site.
We know that Oppama, Japan can only produce 50,000 LEAFs per year, and that “steady production” will not start until the second quarter of 2011. The US will likely get less than half of overall Oppama production for the next two years. Smyrna, Tennessee will begin production in late 2012 with capacity of 150,000 units annually. It is highly likely that they will not produce this amount in their first year. A little deductive reasoning and some basic math skills show that in three years time, Nissan will not have sold 200,000 LEAFs in the US, as they will not have had that many available to sell. So in three years time, the $7,500 tax credit will likely still be available for at least a quarter or two. Even if you typically lean more toward purchasing than leasing (as we do), we feel that these are strong incentives to consider leasing rather than purchasing the 2011 LEAF.
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
A sound analysis, Leafguy. I haven’t ordered yet, and am thinking seriously about cancelling my order.
IMHO, it’s very possible that I may be able to order a 2012-2013 model EV for less money, with a 200-300 mile range. If that happens, what would my 75-100nm range car be worth on the used car market?
Neil – I think that it is unlikely that the future LEAF will cost less than the current LEAF. Battery cost may fall over time, but not much in the next year or two. Rather than less cost, you will likely see more range, but likely not for three years or more. Regarding the value of a three-year old LEAF, that is an unknown. Another reason to consider leasing if you don’t plan on holding the car for the long term.
I’ve thought a lot about this and for me it comes down to three dominate variables, two of which you mentioned. First the tax incentive. If you make less than about $75K, you won’t get the full $7,500 tax incentive. So consider leasing where Nissan takes the $7,500 and passes the savings on in the lease. Also if you are looking at a Jan 2011 or later delivery, leasing would allow you to get the $7,500 incentive immediately, so there may be a time value of money consideration. One other point, the government put in the tax incentive and the government could also remove it. So if you wait, there’s nothing to guarantee it will actually be there in a couple of years.
Second, no doubt battery technology will improve over time. However Li-ion batteries, such as what Nissan uses, are modular. As the battery modules need to be replaced, the new technology battery modules will be used to replace the older. The old battery would still have value. I hope I’ll be able to use them in my home connected to a PV system.
Lastly there’s inflation. A 2014 LEAF will likely be more expensive than a 2011 LEAF simply due to inflation. Today deflation is more of a concern. But over the next 36 months, as the economy reignites and banks begin lending, then the money supply will expand (due to our fractional reserve banking system) and moderate inflation will be the likely result.
There’s an old saying, “you can never buy the newest camera”. The point being you can always wait for newer technology however while you wait you aren’t taking photos! For me, it’s better to be an early adopter and enjoy the EV benefit right away.
I agree and plan to lease, I think your $75,000 to get the whole $7,500 is to low. I spoke to Mark Perry and ask him the old story. If I buy a new tech toy today will there be a better and cheaper version coming out soon. He said no, don’t worry about that happing.
LovetheLEAF – welcome to Living LEAF. Certainly everyone’s situation is different. We just want to bring out considerations that not everyone may have thought of.