Will I get my Nissan LEAF in December? (Part 2)

The question, now that Nissan has started informing reservationists about their order date for the LEAF, is when will we get our car. Let’s exam the timing a little more closely.

Generally the ordering experience on a new car runs something like this: you want a car that your local dealer does not have in stock. You can order your car with your combination of features, options and color, the dealer places your order, and your car will come in typically within 90 days. Timing can vary based on a number of factors, but it is generally within this 90 day window.

Now let’s examine the LEAF ordering process. First reservationists, depending on their region, have received an order date of August or September. Latter launch markets have recieved order dates reaching out to fall 2011, depending upon region of the country. Nissan has stated that production of the LEAF will begin in October, 2010. When in October is unknown.

If production begins in October, in Oppama, Japan, vehicles will be stored until enough exist to ship. These vehicles will then feed three global markets, according to Nissan – Europe, Japan, and the US. The Oppama plant has maximum production capability of 50,000 units annually. This is just over 4,000 units per month. Nissan has said that they expect to receive and fill orders for 25,000 LEAFs in 2011 in the US, which would account for 50% of the production of the Oppama plant. This would send roughly 2,000 LEAFs per month to the US. There are five initial launch markets. These vehicles will be distributed based upon firm orders received. This is where it gets tricky.

Reservationists have placed a $99 reservation with Nissan. This reservation commits neither party to anything. We reserved a place on a waiting list. This is a fully refundable reservation. It is not a deposit on a car.

In August, some reservationists (we have no idea how many) will be able to place a firm order with a dealer. 90 days out from August is November. Cars will likely not yet be available. These orders will likely be the first filled in December as cars start coming in. First orders will likely be filled in Southern California as the vehicles come into the port of Los Angeles in California near Long Beach, CA. Vehicles are shipped by truck from Long Beach to other parts of the country, which will generally add some additional days as they are distributed from the port.

In September, others will be able to place a firm order with a dealer. 90 days out from September is December. These orders may or may not be filled in December. It depends totally on how many reservationists turn into firm orders. If more than 2,000 reservationists with order dates of August and September turn into firm orders, there simply will not be enough vehicles to fill these orders in December.  At this point, no one knows how many reservationists will choose to continue with the process, or ask for a refund. We don’t know if you choose not to place an order, if you will retain your place on the waiting list. We will attempt to find out the answer and pass it along.

Keep this in mind – the Oppama plant is already producing the LEAF. All of the vehicles that are being displayed at marathons and other promotional events, used by the press, as well as those to be used in the upcoming LEAF tour (offering LEAF test drives to reservationists) coming this fall, will all come from the Oppama plant.

So… is it possible that final vehicle production might start prior to October? Yes, it is possible. Is it likely that final vehicle production will start prior to October? No idea.

While we are all eagerly anticipating the launch of this potentially game-changing vehicle, we still find ourselves waiting to see how many and when. We will all likely be asking these questions until the first LEAF hits the first dealership. Whenever that might be.